State budget leaders announced an agreement on Jan. 14 on a state revenue forecast for fiscal 2027, predicting a 2.9% increase.

Facing predictions of slow economic growth and general uncertainty due to federal policy actions, Administration and Finance Secretary Matthew Gorzkowicz, Senate Ways and Means Chair Michael Rodrigues and House Ways and Means Chair Aaron Michlewitz estimate that the Commonwealth will collect $44.9 billion total tax revenue in fiscal 2027.

This figure includes $2.7 billion in revenue from the surtax on incomes over $1 million, a revenue stream that must be used for transportation and education programs. Excluding the surtax, leaders estimate $42.2 billion in tax revenue for the coming fiscal year, representing a 2.4% increase.

State leaders agreed to limit surtax spending to the projected $2.7 billion — $300 million more than was budgeted for fiscal 2026.

In addition to the revenue projections, budget leaders noted that the agreement accounts for projected impacts associated with last year’s federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act, also known as “OB3.”

Each year, state budget officials are required to convene to establish a joint revenue forecast, with final estimates due by Jan. 15. The process includes the consensus revenue hearing, which was held on Dec. 16, where budget experts and economists are invited to offer insight to inform budget leaders’ decisionmaking.

Gov. Maura Healey, the House, and the Senate use the consensus revenue estimate in building their respective fiscal 2027 state budget recommendations. This year, Healey’s fiscal 2027 budget proposal is due to be filed by Jan. 28.

The House and Senate budget plans will follow, typically released in April and May, respectively, with the goal of finalizing a budget before the start of fiscal 2027 on July 1.

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